Scenarios for the US to Reach the Knockout Round

June 18, 2010 - South Africa - Football - Slovenia v United States of America FIFA World Cup South Africa 2010 - Group C - Ellis Park Stadium, Johannesburg, South Africa - 18/6/10..Tim Howard celebrates after Michael Bradley (Not Pictured) scored the second goal for the USA.


With England and Algeria drawing 0-0, USA has a great chance of making the knockout round. Here are the scenarios:

Win against Algeria

If they beat Algeria, they’re in. The Americans would have five points, and Slovenia can only clear that point total at the expense of England (USA/Slovenia advance), while the Three Lions can equal it if they beat Slovenia (England/USA advance), leaving the Slovenes on four. A tie between the European sides means Slovenia and the USA advance.

Tie against Algeria

If Slovenia beats England, the US and Slovenia would advance, but if the English are victorious, Slovenia and England would move on. Were both games to end in draws, Slovenia would top the group, with USA and England even on points and needing a tiebreaker to settle (see below)

Lose against Algeria

They go home.

Tiebreakers

From FIFA’s Regulations for the World Cup, Article 17.6:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches

b) goal difference in all group matches

c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches. If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned

e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned

f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned

g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee

Gringos, how do you like USA’s chances heading into the last group match?

7 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gringo Primal says:

    As long as the Americans don’t dwell on the failed win opportunity against Slovenia and keep their concentration on the Algeria match (hopefully as a experienced WC player Donovan can keep them focused, as he seemed pretty calm about the situation after the game) and fix whatever caused today’s first half, they should win.
    But of course, shoulds mean nothing in the World Cup.

    Yay for sports speak.

  2. Rupert J Pelfrey says:

    Can they just double-team the blonde mohawk algerian? He seems to be their whole team…..

    • Blake Owen says:

      That’s Karim Ziani, and he would be very hard to man-mark. He tends to float around.

      And, yes, he’s good.

      • Matt says:

        I’m more worried about Djebbour. (Probably spelled that wrong.) When he came on against Slovenia, Algeria seemed revitalized, able to move the ball quicker and faster. Since he’s already gotten one retarded red card, I’m not sure he’ll do it again. He’ll be hard pressed, ready, and wanting to overturn his bad first game- but he obviously has skill.

  3. robinoz0 says:

    you know, if Donovan can play the whole game as well as he did the second half against Slovenia, the US should be able to control the game. much like Messi did for his team.

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